What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

A global approach to the analysis of user behavior in mobile payment systems in the new electronic environment

Mobile devices and social media have led to a profound revolution of modern society, obliging many companies to reorient their sales systems towards more successful commercial formats (mobile commerce and social commerce). The mobile payment, for instance, as an emerging and supplementary service to these new commercial formats, is now undergoing the adoption process. Mobile payment has long been discussed, but it has not yet reached the usage levels expected by the different mass market players (financial institutions, telephone operators, etc.) in Western societies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze users’ acceptance of mobile payment systems on social networks. In order to explain acceptance, we have integrated trust and perceived risk into the traditional TAM model. To complete this study, we have established the decisive factors of this payment system by analyzing user’s gender, age and experience level. The study was conducted through an online survey among a national panel composed by 2.012 social network users. The results of this research support previous studies and provide alternatives for companies to consolidate this new business model by means of the new technical developments.     

Reducing Demand for Litigation in Consumer Disputes—a Randomized Field Experiment with Social Information

It has long been argued that alternative dispute resolution is superior to traditional court litigation. The paper reviews traditional and behavioural arguments and findings for why litigation rates remain high. The paper then reports on a natural field experiment designed to test how to improve disputes between consumers and businesses in Denmark resolution by including social information into the dispute process. The experiment demonstrates that social information significantly affects litigants’ need for litigation, but that the effect on settlement rates is non-significant. The results are discussed along with suggestions for possible future research into improving the willingness to cooperate in consumer disputes.     

On the terminology of economic design: a critical assessment and some proposals

The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical examination of some of the terminology that is common in economic design and to suggest ways in which it can be improved.     

What are the antecedents of women’s entrepreneurial orientation?

This study seeks to identify the antecedents of women’s entrepreneurial orientation (EO) and exploring what possible relationships that may exist between them. The research focuses on women entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs in a quantitative perspective whose methodology consisted of the collection of primary data through a survey distributed to women in Portugal. After structural equation modelling was applied, the results suggested that recognition of opportunities influences EO. This influence is expressed both directly and indirectly through training in management and entrepreneurial skills. These findings led to the conclusion that policies promoting training for community members, in general, need to be rethought and policies need to emphasise training in management that enhances entrepreneurial skills, thereby increasing the proliferation of entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship education and training should be promoted from basic education onwards in order to develop entrepreneurial skills from an early age. Prior to this study, the relationships between opportunity recognition, management training and entrepreneurial skills have never been studied in relation to women.     

Between debt and the devil: beyond the normalization delusion

Since 2008, we have found it incredibly difficult to achieve adequate nominal demand growth. I think a fundamental reason we found it so difficult focuses on debt overhangs, if we first allow private leverage to grow too high, we end up in a situation where the debt doesn’t go away, it just moves around the global economy. Total global debt to global GDP is now higher than it ever was before. When interest rates are already low, further reductions of interest rates have very little influence on investment and consumption. Ultra-loose monetary policy does produce increases in asset prices. But if that’s driving an increase in inequality on top of slow growth of real wages. There has been inadequate focus in economics on the different functions that credit creation plays within the economy. We have to think about control of the credit cycle as an end, per se. Our orthodoxy before the crisis was that private credit and money creation is just fine. We have to understand that both governments can fail and be dangerous, and that markets can fail and be dangerous.     

Congruence Effects in Post-crisis CSR Communication: The Mediating Role of Attribution of Corporate Motives

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has grown on the corporate agenda and is at the heart of today’s corporate culture. While much research has examined CSR strategies and effects, the effects of post-crisis CSR communication have received relatively little academic attention. Therefore, this paper uses two experimental studies to examine several key contingency factors that influence consumers’ responses to post-crisis CSR initiatives. Results suggest that consumers demonstrate more favorable responses when a company launches a CSR initiative congruent with the crisis issue, or when the crisis is the result of an accident rather than a transgression. Further, the congruence between the crisis issue and the pre-crisis CSR initiative moderates the consistency effects between pre- and post-crisis initiatives. Such findings should be understood by considering the mediating role of corporate CSR motives’ consumer attributions, which was evidenced in this study. This study theoretically contributes to an improved understanding of the underlying mechanism of the post-crisis CSR information process and managerially contributes to the strategic development of effective post-crisis CSR initiatives given a particular situation.     

Consumer Law and Policy in Ghana

This paper presents a picture of the landscape of consumer law and policy in Ghana and reviews the scope of protection of consumer interests with specific regard to product safety and liability, consumer sales, and telecommunication services. It assesses the legislative and policy framework on consumer contracts, product safety, and unfair commercial practices; discusses the role of national agencies in enforcing safety standards; and highlights some critical consumer issues in telecommunications service delivery. The paper examines the regulatory framework on other consumer issues such as advertising, labelling, and marketing of consumer products; terms and conditions of consumer contracts; and after sales services including the enforcement of guarantees, warranties, refund, and return policies. The paper also discusses the extent of external influence on the development of consumer law and policy in Ghana and reviews the level of interaction with other legal systems and supranational bodies in the three focal areas. The contribution also explores areas of Ghana’s consumer protection framework which could benefit from guidance from the EU transnational model on consumer protection and makes recommendations for the enhancement of the emerging legislative and policy regime on consumer protection in Ghana.     

The market for private student loans: an analysis of credit union exposure,risk, and returns

Beginning in 2011, credit unions in the United States have been required to report in their quarterly call reports their holdings of private student loans. Since this time, private student loans have been the fastest growing loan product among credit unions. The empirical results here indicate credit unions respond to external market forces and internal exposure to interest rate risk in their decision to hold private student loans. The effect of which, to date, has led to lower returns on their assets and no effect on overall risk. Credit unions looking to diversify their loan portfolio should do so with caution. Private student loans being in deferral reduce both delinquency and charge-off rates, which will rise over time with their seasoning and as interest rates rise.